The Planning Error: A Common Cause Of Inefficiency

The planning error describes a concept that we actually all know. The point is that plans are not made in accordance with reality. This can happen in any area, both in the workplace and in our personal life. A perfect example of this is when we’re making a to-do list and at the end of the day, week, or month, many of these tasks are still open.

These differences between our plans and how they are implemented affect our time management. They influence the future availability of resources, productivity and efficiency. The planning error also has serious consequences on an emotional level.

“Plan: think about the best way to get a random result.”

Ambrose Bierce

The origin of the planning error

Since the beginning of the industrial age, people have been talking about the planning mistake, if not using the term. When industrial production and later series production became ready for the market, the time factor gained further importance. The central goal in this context was to maximize production in the shortest possible time. Profitability depended on it.

Since then, planning has become a prerequisite for success on both an organizational and a personal level. Nevertheless, it quickly became apparent that even written plans could almost never be adhered to.

It took several decades until a consistent planning technique was implemented in the industrial sector. At the same time, it was assumed that this would be an impossible task at the individual level and in companies where production depended more on people than on machines. Much time passed before Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky developed the theoretical model of planning error in 1979. Understanding that the problem was very common, they discovered that there was a cognitive bias behind it, a self-delusion related to the limitations of perceiving reality.

Features of the planning error

As a result, several articles were published with detailed descriptions of the planning flaw. Today we understand this fallacy as an illusory perception of time that creates errors in planning activities.

Here are the main features of the planning fallacy:

• Experts realized that while planning, people visualize the most optimistic scenarios. This means that the plans are based on a smooth process without considering setbacks, contingencies or unforeseen circumstances.
• There is an insufficient interpretation of one’s own achievements and possibilities. When planning, people tend to overestimate their own abilities. They assume that they could do a lot of tasks in a short amount of time. This is one of the key factors in planning failure.
• Illusory thinking comes to the fore. This is the way of thinking in which one’s desires prevent an objective assessment of reality. In other words, it’s just wishful thinking.

• When a group of people plan together, individual participants tend to want to impress others . This means that they want to demonstrate how efficient they are. Therefore, unrealistic estimates are made of the time it will take to complete the tasks. It is also normal for them to assume that the faster they do something, the better it would be.

The consequences of the planning error

The most important consequence of the planning error is inadequate time management. In some cases it also leads to an imbalance in resource management. It also implies a bad evaluation of the process itself.

The worst part about it is the toll on an emotional level. The emotional effect of the planning error is a feeling of constant frustration. And a variable dose of constant stress. If the set goal is not achieved, tension and discomfort ensue.

To avoid this cognitive bias, previous experience should be taken into account. These provide reliable data on the actual time required for each activity. When planning, it is always better to take a little more time for any eventuality or incident that may arise. That way, we don’t fall into the frustrations mentioned above.